PENNINGTON, NJ – Ten days shy of this year's Atlantic Hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official 2009 outlook. The word: We're most likely in for a "near-normal" season with some 9 to 14 named storms.

Officially, NOAA's National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center says that there is a 70 percent chance of having 9 to 14 named storms this year, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category Three or higher, with winds of at least 110 miles per hour). Forecasters call for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season.

NOAA's forecast is in line with earlier forecasts, including that of Colorado State University's weather guru Dr. William Gray, who in April predicted 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which will be major storms.

But just how reliable is NOAA when it comes to forecasting? Read on.

How Predictions are Made

First off, let's consider the qualifiers. The predictions are offered in percentages of probability and wide ranges -- a 7 in 10 chance of having 9 to 14 storms. The significant margin of error has meant that the NOAA has been generally accurate over the last several seasons. Last year NOAA predicted a strong chance (65 percent) of an "above normal" season with 12 to 16 named storms; of these, 6 to 9 were expected to become hurricanes, with 2 to 5 major hurricanes. In the end, we saw 16 named Atlantic storms, with eight hurricanes, five of them major -- all within the ranges. And in 2007, the 15 named storms fell within the original estimate of 13 to 17.

In 2005, however, predictions were wildly off. NOAA called for a 70 percent chance of an above normal season, with 12 to 15 named storms. CSU's much-regarded Dr. Gray similarly predicted 13 named storms. When the season ended, there were 27 named storms, including Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the Gulf Coast killing some 1,500 people.

Second, NOAA has noted in this year's report that "global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years." One such consideration is the formation of a weak El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm-water phenomenon experts believe tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane season activity. In fact, the mildness of the 2006 season was attributed to El Nino. (That year, the number and severity of actual hurricanes fell short of forecasters' expectations, prompting them to revise their predictions mid-season.)

Conversely, NOAA reports that supporting more activity this season are conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, which include enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.

Copyright 2009 The Independent Traveler, Inc. All rights reserved. From http://www.cruisecritic.com. By Dan Askin.
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