Like others, in early 2020 we found ourselves needing to adjust our digital ad spending forecasts to account for unprecedented economic uncertainty. While our initial impulse was to revise downward, by Q4 2020 we started seeing a market rebound and raised our outlook accordingly. In 2021, we made further upward revisions, resulting in a forecast that, by 2024, will be about $65 billion higher than what we expected before the pandemic.

Digital ad spending will blow away our earlier estimates. The biggest drivers behind these larger-than-expected increases are retail media networks and connected TV (CTV), both of which benefited from homebound consumers dramatically increasing their use of online shopping and video streaming. Social network and search advertising also surged, owing to growing numbers of people connecting with others online and searching for products and information on their devices. While we expect spending growth to taper off following unprecedented increases in 2021, the market will remain robust as more advertisers turn to digital channels for the benefits they offer compared with traditional media, including improved targeting and measurability.